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Mural Oncology plc (MURA)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2024 was operationally on track: enrollment completed in two potentially registrational nemvaleukin trials, with key data readouts slated for late Q1/early Q2 2025 (ARTISTRY‑7, platinum‑resistant ovarian cancer) and Q2 2025 (ARTISTRY‑6 Cohort 2, mucosal melanoma) .
  • Financial profile improved year over year: net loss narrowed to $31.8M vs. $51.3M, and R&D expenses fell to $27.6M vs. $40.4M; G&A rose modestly to $6.5M vs. $6.0M .
  • Cash and marketable securities were $175.5M at quarter‑end; management reaffirmed cash runway into Q4 2025 and reiterated lower 2025 OpEx vs. 2024 due to trial timing .
  • Strategic positioning advanced: commercial division created in October to prepare for potential BLA/launch of nemvaleukin; SITC presentations reinforced scientific momentum .
  • Estimate comparisons were unavailable at time of request (S&P Global API limit), so we could not quantify beats/misses vs. Street for EPS/revenue/EBITDA.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Completed enrollment in ARTISTRY‑7 (PROC) with 456 patients; interim OS analysis at ~75% events expected late Q1/early Q2 2025, enabling potential 2025 BLA if HR ≤ 0.727 (“27.3% reduction in risk of death”) .
  • Completed enrollment in ARTISTRY‑6 Cohort 2 (mucosal melanoma) with 92 patients; target response rate 25%, topline in Q2 2025; management believes 20–25% durable responses would be meaningful and support FDA accelerated approval discussion .
  • “We are now focused on clinical execution… and commercial readiness… candidate nominations for our IL‑18 and IL‑12 programs expected by the end of this year,” — CEO Caroline Loew, Ph.D. .

What Went Wrong

  • No product revenue; operating loss driven entirely by operating expenses (biotech development stage) .
  • G&A increased year over year ($6.5M vs. $6.0M) due to standalone public company costs (professional fees, insurance, taxes) .
  • Continued cash drawdown across quarters ($231.7M Q1 → $204.7M Q2 → $175.5M Q3), reflecting ongoing clinical execution and operations .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.0 (no revenue reported; operating loss equals total OpEx) $0.0 (no revenue reported; operating loss equals total OpEx) $0.0 (no revenue reported; operating loss equals total OpEx)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$26.9 $27.5 $27.6
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$7.2 $6.7 $6.5
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$34.0 $34.3 $34.1
Operating Loss ($USD Millions)$(34.0) $(34.3) $(34.1)
Other Income ($USD Millions)$3.1 $2.7 $2.3
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(30.9) $(31.6) $(31.8)
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $)$(1.84) $(1.86) $(1.87)
Weighted Avg Shares (Basic & Diluted)16,793,657 16,924,842 17,028,552
Cash & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$231.7 $204.7 $175.5

Notes:

  • Margins (gross/EBITDA/net income) not meaningful given zero revenue and development-stage profile .
  • No segment reporting applicable; single pipeline-focused entity .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash runwayThrough Q4 2025Into Q4 2025 (reaffirmed in Q1 and Q2) Into Q4 2025 (reaffirmed in Q3) Maintained
Operating expenses trajectory2025 vs. 2024Lower OpEx in 2025 vs. 2024 (timing of trials) Lower OpEx in 2025 vs. 2024 (timing of trials) Maintained
Clinical readoutsH1 2025ARTISTRY‑7 interim OS in Q1 2025; ARTISTRY‑6 Cohort 2 topline in H1 2025 ARTISTRY‑7 interim OS late Q1/early Q2 2025; ARTISTRY‑6 Cohort 2 topline Q2 2025 Timing refined
BLA pathway (nemvaleukin)2025 potentialPotential BLA contingent on data and FDA dialogue If ARTISTRY‑7 interim HR ≤ 0.727, plan BLA filing in 2025 subject to FDA discussions Clarified criteria

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: We could not locate a Q3 2024 earnings call transcript in the repository; thus themes reflect press release narratives across quarters.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2024)Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)Current Period (Q3 2024)Trend
Clinical execution (PROC)ARTISTRY‑7 ~448 pts; interim OS in Q1 2025 Enrollment complete; interim OS Q1 2025 Enrollment complete at 456 pts; interim OS late Q1/early Q2 2025; HR success bar 0.727 Progressing; timing refined
Clinical execution (mucosal melanoma)Cohort 2 ~90 pts; topline H1 2025 Cohort 2 topline H1 2025 Cohort 2 92 pts; topline Q2 2025; 25% target ORR; 20–25% durable responses meaningful Progressing; details expanded
LFIV dosing (cutaneous melanoma)Dose shift to two infusions per cycle; prelim mono H1 2025; combo H2 2025 ARTISTRY‑3 at ASCO informed LFIV dose; prelim mono H1 2025; combo H2 2025 Preliminary data timelines reaffirmed (H1/H2 2025) Consistent
Pipeline new candidates (IL‑18, IL‑12)Candidate nominations by end of 2024 Candidate nominations in 2024; mechanism details Nominations expected Q4 2024; IL‑18 IND planned Q4 2025 Advancing; added IND timeline
Commercial readinessNot highlightedNot highlightedNew commercial division created; SVP of Commercial appointed New initiative
Financial runwayInto Q4 2025 Into Q4 2025 Into Q4 2025 (reiterated) Maintained

Management Commentary

  • “Mural launched as a stand‑alone company one year ago… we are now focused on clinical execution… major readouts… in the first half of next year, and commercial readiness. We are also deepening our pipeline with candidate nominations for our IL‑18 and IL‑12 programs expected by the end of this year.” — Caroline Loew, Ph.D., CEO, Q3 2024 .
  • “We’ve seen resurgent interest… we’ve rapidly worked to shape and grow a nimble organization… each of our programs is engineered with a differentiated approach that we hope will play out significantly in the clinic starting early next year.” — Q2 2024 .
  • “We remain on track to share data readouts… less frequent dosing regimen… we have made progress with our preclinical programs for IL‑18 and IL‑12… we continue to be well capitalized to achieve our key clinical readouts.” — Q1 2024 .

Q&A Highlights

  • The Q3 2024 earnings call transcript was not available in the repository; Q&A highlights and any call‑specific guidance clarifications could not be extracted.

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for EPS, revenue, and EBITDA for Q3 2024 and prior quarters was unavailable at time of request due to API rate limits; therefore, we cannot provide beat/miss analysis versus Street for this recap.*

KPIs and Operational Milestones

KPIQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
ARTISTRY‑7 (PROC) enrollment~448 patients; interim OS Q1 2025 Enrollment complete; interim OS Q1 2025 Enrollment complete at 456 patients; interim OS late Q1/early Q2 2025; HR success ≤ 0.727
ARTISTRY‑6 Cohort 2 (mucosal melanoma)~90 patients; topline H1 2025 Topline H1 2025 92 patients; topline Q2 2025; target ORR 25%; durable 20–25% meaningful
LFIV dosing in cutaneous melanomaTwo infusions per cycle; prelim mono H1 2025; combo H2 2025 ARTISTRY‑3 data at ASCO; prelim mono H1 2025; combo H2 2025 Preliminary data timelines reaffirmed
IL‑18Candidate nomination by end 2024 On track for nomination 2024 Nomination Q4 2024; IND Q4 2025
IL‑12Candidate nomination by end 2024 On track for nomination 2024 Nomination Q4 2024

Financial Position and Cash Runway Detail

Balance Sheet Item ($USD Thousands)Dec 31, 2023Mar 31, 2024Jun 30, 2024Sep 30, 2024
Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities$270,852 $231,674 $204,704 $175,501
Total Assets$301,745 $263,504 $234,928 $203,274
Total Equity$263,817 $234,927 $204,573 $174,141
Accounts Payable & Accrued Expenses$22,919 $— (see breakdown: AP $1,567; Accrued $13,524) $3,108 AP; $16,167 Accrued $19,449
Operating Lease Liabilities (Total)$15,009 $13,486 (6,156 short; 7,330 long) $11,080 (5,350 short; 5,730 long) $9,546

Earnings Press Release Cross‑References and Disclosures

  • Q3 2024 press release and 8‑K: operational updates, financial results, and reaffirmed runway/guidance .
  • Additional Q3 press release source links (company IR/GlobeNewswire mirrors) .
  • Q2 2024 8‑K and Exhibit 99.1: pipeline milestones and quarterly financials .
  • Q1 2024 8‑K and Exhibit 99.1: initial annual cadence, pipeline, quarterly financials .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near‑term binary catalysts: ARTISTRY‑7 interim OS late Q1/early Q2 2025 with defined HR success threshold (0.727) and potential BLA in 2025; ARTISTRY‑6 Cohort 2 topline Q2 2025 with ORR target 25% .
  • Cash runway through Q4 2025 appears sufficient to reach both key readouts; OpEx set to decline in 2025, moderating burn as trial spending ebbs .
  • Strategic readiness is improving: newly formed commercial division indicates preparation for potential launch scenarios pending data and FDA interactions .
  • Scientific momentum continues via LFIV dosing evolution and SITC/ASCO data dissemination, underscoring nemvaleukin’s PD effects and safety profile consistency .
  • Development‑stage risk remains high: absent revenue, equity financing needs could re‑emerge beyond Q4 2025 runway, especially if pivotal outcomes are delayed or do not meet thresholds .
  • Portfolio positioning: outcomes in PROC and mucosal melanoma are likely principal stock reaction drivers; be prepared for volatility into event windows.
  • Estimates framework: With S&P Global consensus unavailable for this report, focus near‑term on trial timelines/criteria; update models once consensus access is restored.*

Footnote:
*S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable at time of request due to daily API rate limits; as a result, beat/miss analysis vs. Street is not included.